Market Analysis: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

The market for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026" currently shows a strong consensus toward "No" at 95.5% probability (Yes: 4.5%). Total volume ($17.18M) indicates high engagement, with substantial activity in the past 30 days ($8.26M), though 24h volume ($163.57K) and 7d volume ($1.32M) suggest declining recent interest. Current liquidity ($709.43K) remains robust, supporting stable price resolution despite low recent trade volume. The last trade price ($0.05) aligns with the 4.5% "Yes" probability, reflecting no deviation in the most recent pricing signal. Trading trends over the last 200 trades show zero net price momentum, indicating no active directional shift in sentiment over the period. A buy/sell ratio of 1.38 (116 buys vs 84 sells) suggests a slight preponderance of new or reinforcing bets on "Yes," though this is offset by the low magnitude of recent trades relative to total volume. Thirteen large trades ($1,000+) were observed, with the largest at $38,312.51—indicating high-stakes attention likely from experienced or institutional参与者, though no clear pattern of timing or directionality is discernible from the provided data. Overall, the market reflects low confidence in resolution to "Yes" by the deadline, with stable pricing and sufficient liquidity to absorb continued trade volume without significant volatility. polymarket.com/market/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026

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