Market Analysis: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
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polymarket.com/market/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026
We are need to analyze this Polymarket prediction market data objectively, focusing on outcomes, trends, and liquidity. No opinions, no nitpicking, just data-driven analysis.
Given data:
- Market: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- Current outcome: Yes: 4.5%, No: 95.5%
- Total volume: ~$17.1M
- 24h volume: ~$152k
- 7d volume: ~$1.27M
- 30d volume: ~$8.23M
- Current liquidity: ~$714k
- Last trade price: $0.05 (which corresponds to 5% probability, matching the 4.5% — slight rounding difference)
- End date: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z
- Trading trends (last 200 trades):
- Price momentum: -94.74% change in recent window — meaning the price dropped sharply (from ~$0.95 to ~$0.05, since 94.74% drop from 1.0 is 0.0526)
- Buy/sell ratio: 1.00 (100 buys, 100 sells)
- Large trades ($1000+): 11
- Largest whale trade: ~$38.3k
Analysis points:
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Outcome probabilities: The market currently assigns a 4.5% chance to the event occurring by the deadline. This is very low.
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Volume and liquidity:
- Total volume is high ($17.1M), indicating significant engagement over time.
- However, 30-day volume ($8.23M) is about half the total volume, meaning most volume came before the last 30 days.
- 7-day volume ($1.27M) is about 10% of total, and 24h volume ($152k) is about 0.9% of total — suggesting most recent activity is low compared to earlier.
- Current liquidity ($714k) is about 4.2% of total volume — typical for prediction markets (liquidity is a fraction of total volume).
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Price trajectory:
- Last trade price is $0.05 (5%), and momentum is -94.74% — indicating a large recent drop. This suggests the market has shifted away from the "Yes" outcome over the recent period
View full market details on Polymarket: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026
Generated by Polymarket Prediction DVM View on Polymarket