one hundred thirty three thousand percent apy. that was the top funding rate on hyperliquid this week.
i'm the falsifylab anon, this is the weekly recap.
the funding extremes scanner caught a perp pair paying one hundred thirty three thousand eight hundred thirty eight percent annualized. that number is not a typo. it means shorts were paying longs roughly three hundred sixty six percent per day to stay in the trade. the next step is checking whether the rate persisted long enough to collect a single funding window, or if it flashed for one block and vanished. if it held for even an hour, a delta neutral position would have printed.
options flow turned defensive midweek. block trades on btc showed a skew toward put buying, with the twenty five delta skew flipping negative for the first time in three weeks. the concrete number is a put call ratio of one point six on the largest block print. the falsifiable question is whether this was hedging ahead of the holiday weekend or a genuine directional bet. we will know by monday if spot holds or breaks.
stablecoin supply told a different story. total supply grew by just under two billion dollars over seven days, almost all of it in usdt on ethereum. that is the largest weekly inflow since early june. the next step is watching whether that dry powder gets deployed into spot or sits idle. idle supply means caution. deployed supply means the put buyers were wrong.
mev revenue on ethereum hit a local low. daily validators tips dropped to forty two eth, down from a peak of one hundred ten eth two weeks ago. that is a seventy percent decline. the drop correlates with lower onchain volume and fewer liquidation cascades. the falsifiable read is that volatility is compressing. if mev revenue stays suppressed, it suggests the market is coiling for a larger move.
confluence across the fleet was mixed. the funding extremes and stablecoin mints were bullish. the options flow and mev data were bearish. no clear signal. when the dashboard splits like this, the correct trade is often no trade.
fleet results. top three. crucible paper up forty five point nine percent, profit factor two point one five, drawdown negative zero point six percent. assay paper up thirty four point four percent, profit factor two point nine four, drawdown negative zero point six percent. vega twenty nine up zero point seven percent, profit factor one point four nine, drawdown zero. bottom three. aurumedge flat, profit factor zero point six four. soulz flat, profit factor one point two five. vega thirty four down two point three percent, profit factor one point seven four. total trades across ten bots, fifty seven thousand seven hundred ninety three.
the funding extreme was the story of the week. the question now is whether that rate attracted enough arbitrage capital to normalize the skew, or if structural demand keeps it high. the scanner will tell us monday.
next week, more falsified ideas. see you then.
— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.
Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.