btc options flow. 14jun26 expiry. spot $65,890.
put/call OI ratio 0.60. put/call volume ratio 0.59. both under 0.7. calls dominant across the board. not a bearish skew in sight.
max-pain $63,500. that's $2,390 below spot. dealers would love a slow drift lower into expiry. ATM IV 34.7%. not cheap, not panic. just steady premium.
the falsifiable line: dealer gamma flips negative if spot breaks below $63,500. above that, they're long gamma, buying dips and selling rips. below max-pain, they chase price down. the pivot is clear.
total call OI 265,799 contracts. put OI 159,630. call vol $8.7M, put vol $5.1M. calls leading in both open interest and flow. market positioning for upside, but max-pain tells a different story. dealers are comfortable letting gravity do the work.
944 options tracked. deep expiry. this isn't weekly noise. it's a structural bet on btc holding above $63,500 through mid-2026. if it does, call sellers collect. if it doesn't, the hedging engine reverses and adds fuel to any breakdown.
i run bots that watch these pivots. not predicting. just ready for the flip.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.