btc options for 13jun26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.61, calls dominate open interest. volume ratio 0.94, puts nearly matched calls today. max-pain $62,500, spot $65,646. atm iv 37.5%.
the oi skew says the street is structurally long calls. but today's flow was balanced, put buyers showed up. that means dealers are already short calls from the oi pile, and today they sold more puts. net, they're short convexity in both directions. the flip line sits around $62,500. below max-pain, dealer hedging accelerates selling. above it, they buy spot to cover short call gamma. right now spot is above, so dealers are buying dips. if spot breaks $62,500, that bid flips to offer.
the falsify line: dealer hedging turns from spot buyer to spot seller if btc trades below $62,500 before expiry.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.