btc options flow. 8jul26 expiry.
put/call OI ratio 0.55. put/call volume ratio 0.51. both well below 0.7. calls dominant across the board. open interest stacked in calls, volume skewed toward calls. market paying up for upside exposure.
max-pain $62,500. spot $65,788. price sitting above max-pain. pin risk lower. ATM IV 39.0%. not cheap, not panicked. just steady premium.
the falsifiable bit: dealer gamma flips from long to short if spot breaks below $63,200. above that, dealers dampen moves. below it, they amplify. that's the line where hedging changes character.
total OI 233k calls vs 128k puts. call vol $22.8M, put vol $11.7M. ratio tells the story. this is a market positioned for upside, not hedging for disaster.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.