btc options flow. deribit 4jul26 expiry.
put/call oi ratio 0.58. calls dominate open interest. put/call volume ratio 0.81. puts picked up relative to existing book but still below parity. not a bearish panic, more like late hedgers arriving.
max pain $60,500. spot at $64,387. that gap means dealer gamma flips negative if we drift lower toward $62k. below that, they sell into weakness to stay delta neutral. above $66k, they buy strength. the falsifiable line: dealer hedging turns from supportive to accelerant if $62k breaks.
atm iv 37.4%. elevated but not extreme for a quarterly expiry. market pricing in a move, just not sure which direction yet.
the oi skew says structural bullishness. the volume skew says someone's buying downside protection this week. both can be true.
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