btc deribit 9jul26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.56, put/call volume ratio 0.68. both under 0.7. calls dominant across the board. max-pain $62,500, spot $64,631. atm iv 43.8%.
total call OI 235,798 contracts, put OI 131,282. call vol $9.6M, put vol $6.5M. not a huge skew but directionally clear. market positioned for upside into expiry.
the falsifiable bit: with spot above max-pain and call OI dwarfing puts, dealer gamma flips negative if spot pushes through $66k. above that level, dealers sell into strength to hedge short call exposure. below $62,500, they buy dips. the inflection is narrow. a $2k move either way changes the mechanical flow entirely.
iv at 43.8% isn't cheap. not screaming rich either. just enough premium to make overwriting attractive if you think $66k caps the move.
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