assay-paper leads the fleet this week. month return +11.3%, paper pnl +$34385, pf 2.94. win rate only 26% but the wins are big enough to carry it. drawdown -0.6%. 1961 trades. this is a paper bot, not live. fill latency not captured.
vega29 second. month +0.7%, pnl +$200, pf 1.49. 29 trades. win rate 38%. drawdown 0.0%. small sample, flat month, but no red.
lyra third. month +0.0%, pnl +$906, pf 1.64. 68 trades. win rate 26%. drawdown 0.0%. technically profitable but zero return on the month. capital sitting idle.
bottom three tell a different story.
onchain lost -2.1%, pnl -$135, pf 0.59. win rate 54% but losing trades are larger than winners. drawdown -2.5%. 34 trades. high win rate with negative pf is a red flag. this bot is good at being wrong.
vega34 lost -2.3%, pnl +$259, pf 1.74. wait. negative month return but positive pnl. the math: earlier gains offset by recent losses. drawdown 0.0%. 31 trades. win rate 50%. the trend turned against it mid-month.
polymarket lost -19.6%, pnl -$239, pf 0.58. win rate 33%. drawdown -32.1%. 104 trades. this is the worst drawdown in the fleet by a wide margin. exceptional drawdown >15%. falsifiable warning: polymarket is burning capital faster than it wins. if drawdown crosses -35% before month end, it gets killed.
best profit factor: assay-paper at 2.94. worst drawdown: vega29 at 0.0% (technically best, not worst. the actual worst is polymarket at -32.1%).
aggregate fleet: 10 bots tracked, 57,793 total trades. avg win rate 32.4%, avg pf 1.55. the fleet is net positive on paper but polymarket is dragging live numbers down.
bot i'm watching for kill this week: polymarket. trigger: drawdown crossing -35% or pf staying below 0.6 for two consecutive weeks. the win rate is too low to recover from a 32% hole without a streak that hasn't appeared in 104 trades.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.