Comments:
This is where we embark on our journey and set sail into unknown waters...
Seasonal Trend/Monthly Changes:
While Bitcoin's seasonal trend often resembles that of the SP500, sometimes they can lead or lag each other. We have been in a bullish trend for 24 months since November 2022, which exceeds the average duration of a bullish trend that ranges from 9 to 18 months. The reality is harsh, and we are in a brutally bullish market. This November has been like the last 15 years of Bitcoin, and we expect a premium close this month.
Interest Rate Differentials:
The FED has lowered the interest rate to 4.75% after 3 years, signaling the first dovish signs. The inflation target of 2% has not yet been reached but remains close. Among central banks, the FED and the BOE currently maintain the highest rates. The central bank market gives us a framework and a positive bias.
Market Structure:
Since November 2022, we have a clear monthly bullish trend that marked a new ATH in March 2024 and has projected after 7 months of re-accumulation to keep us bullish and embark on projections.
Intermarket Analysis:
The YM and ES reached a new all-time high in October. The NQ has had a relative high but has not yet presented a new all-time high, being the most delayed.
The ZF, ZN, and ZB bonds have had a negative month, closing below the lows and a FVG M. They are likely to continue with some weakness. The 5, 10, and 30-year interest rates behave inversely with strength.
The DYX has achieved a strong bullish reversal. There is weakness in peripheral currencies led by the EUR.
In commodities, the GC maintains another month with a bullish close at highs, being the strongest. BTC achieves a monthly close above relative highs after 7 months. CL shows weakness without being able to achieve a bullish close.
The conclusion is the strength of the stock market led by the ES and YM, but they may be approaching a trend end. This is reflected in the DYX making a monthly bullish MSS. In commodities, the GC continues to lead with great strength, and BTC has achieved the first sign of a monthly bullish change, projecting above highs following the path of GC. CL is in a high resistance and lagging territory.
Market Profile:
The market is frankly and brutally bullish, taking a new high and fleetingly massacring structures at a discount. We can only watch and project a trend end when it occurs, but never go against institutional order flow.
Operational Range:
49577 to 93483. Currently in Premium Zone.
PD Array Matrix:
Premium:
- ATH 93483.00
Discount:
- OB+M 64612
- FVG M 59313
- PML 58867
Equilibrium:
- 71530
Key Price Levels:
- OB+M 64612. I do not expect closes below the CE of the structure to maintain the bullish idea.
Monthly BIAS:
Bullish BIAS.
Monthly Objective:
- The first objective has been the extension +1.5SD of the consolidation at 85903, which has already been met. The second objective would be the extension between +2.0SD and +2.5SD between the values of 98011 and 110120. I have doubts whether it will find the strength to reach here this month, given that ideally, we will do so before closing 2024.
"The market is the mirror through which we truly see who we are, godspeed traveler."