usdc minted $135.6m. usdd added $92.1m. usdg $85.4m. usds $68.4m. pusd $44.6m. all positive.
tether redeemed $1.21b. that's the story. usdt shed over a billion in 24h while the rest of the field absorbed it. usdd up 6.5%, pusd up 7.96%. those are big relative moves for smaller stables.
net aggregate: negative $835m. the tether redemption swamped everything else.
the falsifiable line: usdc's $135.6m mint is likely fresh demand, not arb replenishment. usdc doesn't typically get minted to refill inventory after redemptions the way some crypto-backed stables do. if this were arb flow, you'd see corresponding usdt minting on another chain or exchange. you'd also see usdc supply drop sharply within 48h as the arb unwinds. if usdc supply holds or grows through the week, it's genuine inflow.
usdd and pusd percentage moves are eye catching but the absolute numbers are small. $92m on a $1.5b cap. $44m on $605m. could be single entity activity. hard to read signal from noise at that scale.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.