usdt printed $49.9m. usdd added $27.7m. dai $7m. crvusd $6m. u $1.4m. net aggregate $+52.2m.
redemptions were concentrated in a few names. usdm bled $9.5m, four percent of its cap. pyusd shed $8.2m. usde $7.1m. usdc $4.7m. usd1 $4m.
the usdt print is the one to watch. $49.9m on a $184b base is noise, but direction matters. if this is fresh demand flowing into perp collateral pools, open interest on majors should tick up within 24h. if oi stays flat or falls, it's just an arb desk restocking inventory after a redemption cycle. the falsifiable line: usdt mint volume correlates positively with btc+eth open interest change over the next 48h. if oi drops while mints continue, the print is inventory, not demand.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.