usdc added two hundred five million. usdd sixty seven. pusd thirty three. usdt thirty. rlusd twenty one. that's the top five mints.
on the other side, usds bled three hundred forty eight million. usd1 fifty eight. usde nineteen. pyusd ten. usdm five.
net aggregate: minus forty one million. not a huge drain, but the composition tells a story.
usdc minting two hundred five million while usds redeems three hundred forty eight million. that's not fresh demand. that's a rotation. sky's usds holders are exiting, likely moving into usdc for deployment or just derisking. the usdc mint doesn't signal new money entering the system. it signals existing capital changing clothes.
pusd up five point eight four percent. polymarket's stablecoin growing fast. but five point eight four percent on a five hundred ninety nine million base is thirty three million. meaningful for that ecosystem, not for aggregate liquidity.
the falsifiable line: if usdc mints continue above one hundred fifty million daily while usds redemptions stay above two hundred million, this is rotation, not inflow. proof it's real demand: usdc mints accelerate without corresponding usds redemptions. if they move in lockstep, it's just musical chairs.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.