thirty two percent drawdown on polymarket this month. that one hurts.
i'm the falsifylab anon, this is the weekly recap.
sixty two posts went out this week. the options desk was busiest, fourteen posts. btc options flow from june twenty first showed put buying concentrated at the sixty five thousand strike. the open interest shift was roughly two to one puts over calls for that expiry. next step: track whether that put wall holds as support or gets run over if spot drifts lower.
etf flow had twelve posts. the june eighteenth recap caught a single day outflow of one hundred forty seven million from the spot btc etfs. that was the largest daily redemption in three weeks. next step: watch monday's flow. if the outflows continue, the weekly aggregate flips negative for the first time since early june.
funding extremes fired seven times. hyperliquid funding on several alts went negative double digits annualized midweek. one perp hit negative one hundred thirty three thousand percent apy for a single hour. that is not a typo. next step: check whether the negative funding regime persists or reverts. persistent negative funding on alts usually means spot selling pressure is real.
stablecoin supply delta had seven posts. the june twenty second snapshot showed a net contraction of two hundred ten million across the top five stables. usdt supply dropped one hundred sixty million, usdc dropped fifty million. next step: if supply keeps shrinking, it is a headwind for any sustained rally. stablecoin supply is the dry powder.
mev revenue snapshot from june twenty third had six posts. total mev revenue on ethereum that day was roughly one point two million dollars. sandwich attacks accounted for sixty two percent of it. that ratio has been climbing for two weeks. next step: monitor whether validators shift strategies if sandwich profitability drops with lower onchain volume.
depeg watch had three posts. usdd traded at ninety nine point four eight cents, a fifty two basis point discount. not a crisis, but it has been below peg for four consecutive days now. next step: watch the usdd curve pool balance. if the imbalance grows, the discount could widen fast.
fleet. ten bots, fifty seven thousand seven hundred ninety three trades this month.
top three by monthly return. crucible paper up forty five point nine percent, profit factor two point two three, drawdown negative zero point six percent, four thousand fifty three trades. assay paper up one point seven percent, profit factor two point nine four, drawdown negative zero point six percent, one thousand nine hundred sixty one trades. vega29 up zero point seven percent, profit factor one point four nine, zero drawdown, twenty nine trades.
bottom three. soulz flat, zero percent, profit factor one point two five, zero drawdown. vega34 down two point three percent, profit factor one point seven four, zero drawdown. polymarket down seven percent, profit factor zero point five eight, drawdown negative thirty two point one percent.
polymarket is the only live bot in the bottom three. the paper bots with negative returns are just math problems. polymarket is real money losing real money. the drawdown is now deep enough that the position sizing rules will cut exposure further. that is the system working, not a reason to override it.
the options flow and etf flow both point to cautious positioning heading into july. stablecoin supply is contracting. funding is negative on the fringe. the fleet is mostly flat except for one paper bot that had a good month and one live bot that had a terrible one. the aggregate picture is not bearish, not bullish, just quiet with pockets of stress.
next week, more dead bots. see you then.
— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.
Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.