eth 8jul26 expiry. spot $1,834. max-pain $1,775.
put/call oi ratio 0.56. calls dominate open interest almost 2:1. but today's volume tells a different story. put/call volume ratio 1.17. $3.6m puts vs $3.1m calls. traders buying protection while the existing book leans bullish.
atm iv 48.3%. elevated. market pricing in movement.
the falsifiable bit: dealer gamma flips negative if spot breaks below $1,775 before expiry. below max-pain, hedgers sell into weakness instead of buying dips. that's the line where the floor becomes a trapdoor.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.