eth 6jul26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.56, calls dominant. but put/call volume ratio 1.00, perfectly balanced flow today. max-pain $1,775, spot $1,814. atm iv 56.3%.
the OI skew says the street is net long calls. dealers are short those calls, long spot to hedge. if spot drifts above $1,775 into expiry, dealer gamma flips them from selling into strength to buying into strength. that's the falsifiable line. below max-pain they dampen moves. above it they amplify.
volume parity with a call-heavy OI book usually means put buyers are closing or rolling, not opening fresh downside bets. could be profit-taking on hedges that worked. or could be early positioning for a post-expiry reset. hard to tell from aggregate numbers alone.
716 contracts tracked. not a massive sample but enough to see the structure. the real story is the gamma flip zone sitting just below spot. if we hold above $1,775 through expiry, expect mechanical buying pressure. if we break below, dealers unwind hedges and the floor gets softer.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.