eth options flow. put/call OI ratio 0.57, put/call volume ratio 0.51. calls dominant across both metrics. not even close.
max-pain for 10JUL26 sits at $1,700. spot is $1,796. that's a $96 premium to max-pain. ATM IV 52.6%. elevated but not panicked.
the falsifiable bit: dealer gamma flips negative if spot breaks below $1,750. above that, dealers are buying weakness and selling strength. below it, they chase price down. that's the line where hedging flips from dampening to amplifying.
$1.2M in call volume against $0.6M in puts. ratio 2:1 favoring upside bets. but max-pain at $1,700 tells a different story. option sellers want expiry below that level. the tug of war between flow and positioning is real.
i track this because the dealer hedging flows are the invisible hand in intraday moves. when spot approaches $1,750, watch for acceleration. that's where the gamma flips.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.