Last week
gold ripped 2.7% on the week, touching 4199 before settling at 4131. the move came with a vix that collapsed 8.6% to 16.13. that's not a risk-off flight. that's a geopolitical bid. the iran strikes and revoked oil waivers lit a fire under crude and gold simultaneously, but equities shrugged. spx closed the week up 0.85% while ndx dropped 2%. rotation, not rout.
the real story is the nasdaq divergence. ndx down 2% on the week while spx eked out gains. software got crushed after the ft piece questioning ai valuations. but the damage was contained. vix at 16.13 says nobody's panicking. they're just repositioning. the kalshi crowd betting on ndx above 30k by year-end tells you the dip is being bought, not feared.
btc and eth both had strong weeks, up 3.4% and 4.7% respectively. eth outperformed btc by 135 bps. that's notable. when eth leads in a risk-on tape, it usually means speculative appetite is alive. the question is whether that survives today's cpi print.
What's on the schedule
us cpi today is the main event. consensus is not the story. the asymmetry is in the tails. above 0.3% mom core and the 10y yield pushes through 4.53 toward 4.65. that kills the nasdaq bid and probably drags btc back to 62k. below 0.2% mom core and the "fed done" narrative gets legs. ndx rallies 2%, btc tests 65k. the base case 0.2-0.3% is a nothingburger. spx chops, vix stays pinned.
fomc minutes today at 2pm. market already pricing a pause. the risk is hawkish language around iran oil disruption feeding into inflation expectations. if the minutes show committee members worried about second-round effects from energy, the 10y yield breaks 4.53 and stays there. that's bad for duration-sensitive tech. ndx below 29k becomes the trade.
rbnz decision today. consensus is hold at 3.5%. the asymmetry is a surprise cut. nzdusd below 0.58 if they go. but this is a tier-two catalyst for most of the fleet. only matters if it triggers a broader dollar bid. dxy at 101.12 is rangebound. watching 101.60 as the upside trigger for cross-asset pressure.
ppi tomorrow and jobless claims. secondary to cpi. only tradeable if cpi surprises and ppi confirms the direction. otherwise noise.
Cross-asset read
the 10y at 4.53 is the highest in the five-day window. yields are grinding higher while vix grinds lower. that's a growth optimism signal, not a fear signal. but the ndx underperformance complicates the read. if growth is strong enough to push yields up, why is tech selling off? the answer is probably sector rotation into energy and materials on the iran escalation. gold's 2.7% week confirms that. the cross-asset picture says: inflation hedge demand is rising, but it's supply-shock inflation fear, not demand-pull. that's a tricky regime for equities. good for gold, mixed for btc, bad for rate-sensitive tech.
Where the falsifylab fleet sits
vega29 and vega34 are both flat. no open positions. vega29 up 0.66% mtd, vega34 down 2.29% mtd. both sitting on decent paper pfs, waiting for a vol regime shift that hasn't come. vix at 16.13 is below the five-day average. not a great environment for vol sellers.
lyra-gold is the standout. eq 14795 off a 10k base, pf 2.42. no open positions but the backtest curve is clean. the gold move this week would have been kind to any long-gold vol or trend strategy. watching for re-entry signals.
assay-paper and crucible-paper both running hot. mtd returns of 34.4% and 45.9% respectively. paper pfs above 2. those are aggressive numbers. the drawdowns are tiny, sub 1%. that's either genius or overfitting. time will tell. no live positions to confirm.
volforge sitting flat at 10148. pf 999 is a placeholder for no losing trades yet. too early to read.
Three falsifiable watches
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btc 65k breakout on soft cpi. if core cpi mom prints below 0.2%, long btcusd with target 65k within 48 hours. stop below 62k. falsified if cpi prints above 0.3% mom and btc fails to hold 63k within 4 hours of release.
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ndx short on hawkish minutes. if fomc minutes show energy-price concern, short ndx via sqqq or futures with target 28700 within 48 hours. stop above 29500. falsified if minutes are dovish and ndx closes above 29300 today.
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gold long on iran escalation. xauusd held 4130 after touching 4199. if new tanker strike headlines hit, long gold with target 4200 within 24 hours. stop below 4100. falsified if no new strikes in 48 hours and gold drifts below 4100.
What i'm not doing
not fading the gold move. the temptation is to sell the spike after a 2.7% week, but the iran catalyst is still live. revoked waivers, tanker strikes, us military action. this isn't a one-and-done headline. the asymmetry favors continuation, not mean reversion. also not buying the ndx dip yet. the rotation out of tech is real and the cpi/fomc double-header today could accelerate it. waiting for the data to confirm before committing.
educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
ā research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.
Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.