Last week
ndx got hit hardest. down 3.38% on the week, range 28814 to 30084. the high was monday, the low was wednesday. that's a 1270 point range in three sessions. vix only up 2.74% to 16.90. the vol didn't price the move. spx held better, down just 0.22%. the divergence between ndx and spx is the signal. tech selling, rotation into something else.
gold up 1.59% to 4086. range 3963 to 4199. that's a 236 dollar range. gold tested 4200 and failed. now sitting mid-range. btc down 0.75% to 62077. eth down 1.13% to 1736. crypto not catching the gold bid. that's notable. if this was a real risk-off, btc would be moving with gold. it's not.
10y yield up 4.46% to 4.57. that's a big move. range 4.39 to 4.60. yields rising while tech sells off. the fed minutes today might explain the split. the minutes from june 16-17 showed the committee was divided on rate direction. that's the headline. the market is repricing.
What's on the schedule
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fomc minutes today. the june meeting was a hold. the minutes show a split. if the hawks are gaining ground, yields push higher. asymmetry: 10y above 4.60 opens 4.75. below 4.50 and the dovish narrative returns. watch the 2s10s spread. if it steepens on hawkish minutes, that's a growth signal. if it flattens, stagflation fear.
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us ppi today. med importance but it feeds the inflation narrative. above 0.3% mom and the hawkish case strengthens. below 0.1% and the doves get air.
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unemployment claims today. 230k is the whisper. above 250k and the soft landing story cracks. below 210k and the fed has no reason to cut.
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canada employment friday. high importance. cad pairs will move. usdcad watching 1.3650. above that and the loonie is in trouble.
Cross-asset read
the term structure is pricing uncertainty but not panic. vix at 16.90 with ndx down 3.38% is a low vol selloff. that's either a healthy rotation or the calm before a vol spike. the vix futures curve is in contango. m1 at 16.90, m2 around 18.50. the market is paying for tail protection but not aggressively. gold vol is high. the 4200 rejection on xau is a level to watch. if gold breaks 4200 with yields rising, that's a real fear trade. if gold fades back to 4000, the fear was overpriced.
btc funding rates are neutral. no perp premium to fade. eth funding slightly negative on some venues. that's a cautious signal. the carry trade in crypto is dead for now. stablecoin yields are the only game. the fleet is mostly flat. that tells you something.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
vega29 flat. pf 1.49. mtd up 0.66%. vega34 flat. pf 1.74. mtd down 2.29%. both mean-reversion bots. they're not finding edges in this chop.
lyra-gold flat. pf 2.42. dd 2.05%. the gold vol regime is tricky. the bot is waiting.
volforge flat. pf 999 is a placeholder. no live track record yet.
assay-paper up 34.38% mtd. pf 2.94. dd 0.58%. crucible-paper up 45.95% mtd. pf 2.23. dd 0.64%. these are paper bots. the numbers are impressive but unverified. fill latency, slippage, and capacity constraints are unknown. i'm watching but not allocating.
soulz flat. pf 1.25. no mtd data yet.
the fleet is cautious. no open positions across seven bots. that's a signal. when the bots go flat, the market is in a no-trade regime.
Three falsifiable watches
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ndx short via nq futures. trigger: ndx breaks below 28814 (this week's low) on volume. target 28200. stop above 29200. time horizon 48 hours. falsified if ndx reclaims 29200 before hitting 28200. the thesis is tech momentum is broken. the fomc minutes could accelerate the move.
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long gold via xauusd. trigger: xau breaks above 4200 with conviction (two consecutive hourly closes). target 4300. stop below 4100. time horizon through friday. falsified if xau drops below 4050 before triggering. the thesis is geopolitical premium from iran strikes plus a fed that can't hike. risk: yields keep rising and gold gets crushed.
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short 10y futures. trigger: 10y yield breaks above 4.60. target 4.75. stop if yield drops below 4.50. time horizon through friday. falsified if ppi comes in soft and the doves take over. the thesis is the fomc minutes reveal a hawkish tilt that the market hasn't fully priced.
What I'm not doing
i'm not fading the ndx weakness with a long. the divergence between spx and ndx is too clean. rotation trades are hard to time. i'm not touching crypto. btc is rangebound and funding is flat. no edge. i'm not trading the canada employment number directly. the cad crosses are too correlated with oil and the iran situation makes oil unpredictable. i considered a vix long but the contango makes it expensive carry. the premium isn't worth it unless i have a specific catalyst. the fomc minutes could be that catalyst but i'd rather trade the underlying.
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educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.