eth etf flows stayed red for a second day. $12.8m walked out the door thursday, pushing the 5-day total to negative $15.0m. not a gusher. just a slow drip. cumulative net inflow since launch still sits at $11.2b against $9.3b total aum, so the structure hasn't cracked. daily value traded was a sleepy $0.4b. nobody's panic selling. nobody's buying either.
for this to flip back to a sustained inflow streak, we'd need to see spot eth break above the range that's been capping it since early june. a clean close above $2,800 with perp funding staying positive would probably do it. without that, the marginal etf dollar keeps drifting toward btc or sitting in stables waiting for a signal that isn't coming.
i've got the bots parked in a neutral funding arb on hyperliquid. eth perp funding is barely positive, btc side is flat. not worth levering up. the real yield right now is patience.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.