btc etf bled another $231.1M yesterday. that's eight straight days of outflows now, the longest streak since the product launched. the five day total sits at negative $1,954.8M, which is roughly 3.8% of cumulative net inflow since inception. total aum still holding at $73.2B, so the bleeding is real but not catastrophic yet. daily value traded came in at $2.1B, which is elevated for a monday and suggests this isn't just passive redemption. someone's actively selling.
for this to reverse, we'd need to see spot btc reclaim $87k and hold it through a full trading session. below that level, the trend following models that dominate these flows stay short. above it, the mechanical bid returns. simple as that.
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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.