[{"_1":2,"_3":-5,"_4":-5},"loaderData",{"_5":6},"actionData","errors","routes/hashtag",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12},"articles",[13],"authors",{},"tag","#kayfabe",{"_14":15,"_16":17,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23,"_24":25,"_26":27},"content","March 31, 1985 was a monumental day in the history of the United States of America. We’ll get to why shortly, but just trust us on this one. The year 1985, in fact, was a time of great optimism for America – one of the world’s *two* superpowers at the time. The Cold War lingered on, simmering, but it was clear to those paying attention that the Soviet Union was on its last legs, and that a wind of change was coming.[1](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-1-187025407)\n\nThe Baby Boomers were just starting to enter their prime earnings years. Those born smack dab in the middle of the Boomer generation, in 1955, were turning 30 in that first year of Ronald Reagan’s second presidential term. Many owned homes and were well on their way to growing the nest eggs that their grandchildren today can only dream about. The median age for first-time home buyers in the United States at the time was 29 years old. In 2024 it was 38, and at the end of 2025 it had ticked up to 40.\n\n

\n\nThe Boomers had brought their wives into the workforce. Family life and stability would inevitably suffer in the decades to follow, but all things considered, life in 1985 was pretty good for your average American family.\n\nThe gap between productivity and a typical worker’s compensation had been widening, but again, in 1985 it wasn’t at the extreme, middle-class-soul-crushing level we see today. At the end of Q1 1985, March 31st to be exact, the Productivity-Pay gap had risen to a lofty level of almost 23%.[2](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-2-187025407)\n\n

\n\nIt was too high, to be sure, and a sign of the ugliness to come, but concealable for an imaginative leadership class skillful in the mobilization and deployment of the “bread and circuses” needed to appease the masses.\n\nJust a year prior, in 1984, Americans would mindlessly yuck it up at the *bread* (and the lack of beef).\n\n

\n\n\n\nAnd 1985 brought the circus.\n\n

\n\n“*I pity the fool who wears speedos on a cold, early spring day.”* | Wikipedia\n\n### **Wrestlemania**\n\nThe first Wrestlemania took place at Madison Square Garden in New York City on March 31, 1985. Though we have never been fans of the World Wrestling Federation (as it was called back then), and to be honest have felt nothing but disdain for anyone over the age of eight who actually does watch it, we still recognize it for the spectacle that it is. And with its somewhat recent addition to the Netflix catalog, we, being in a particularly “let’s use as few brain cells as possible” mood, one night, decided to hit play when the algorithm decided to push it to us.\n\nSitting there, bewildered that grown men cheered on other men rough housing, and that home viewers at the time actually paid good money to watch it on Pay-Per-View TV, over the next two hours and sixteen minutes, we have to admit, the comedy and sheer *American-ness* of it all won us over.\n\nIt was basically *Rocky III*, and *Rocky IV* rolled into one event, with Hulk Hogan and Mr. T kicking ass and the Iranian Iron Sheik and Nikolai Volkoff (*that Commie bastard!*) getting booed incessantly.\n\nWith the women’s championship, Cyndi Lauper proved that girls just wanted new ways to have fun.\n\n

\n\n\n\nAnd the heavyweight championship, with a greased up Hulk Hogan, sweaty Mr. T, guest ring announcer former Yankees second baseman-and-soon-to-be-rehired-for-the-fourth-time manager Billy Martin, guest referee Muhammad Ali, and a mink coat-wearing Liberace line dancing *with the fucking Rockettes or some shit?* …\n\n

\n\n*Dear God, WTF are we doing with our time?* | Metro News\n\nThe first Wrestlemania was the *most American thing ever*.\n\n

\n\nYes, this really happened. | my123cents.com\n\nThe first Wrestlemania was *this* meme incarnate.\n\n

\n\nBut of course, it was all *kayfabe –* fake, make-believe – a portrayal of staged elements maintaining the pretense of reality for an audience that suspends its disbelief in order to enjoy the show.[3](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-3-187025407) As circuses normally do, it made a whole lot of people happy. It entertained the hell out of them. Vince McMahon, the founder of the WWF/E is now a billionaire, and this dumbass shit is more popular than ever.\n\n### **“Are You Not Entertained?!”**\n\nIt only took until Wrestlemania IV before Donald Trump made an appearance. It was held at (what was billed as) Trump Plaza in Atlantic City, and the future president had a front row seat next to his then-wife Ivana.[4](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-4-187025407)\n\nTrump seemed to thoroughly enjoy the show, and he was probably making mental notes. Circuses, in the gladiatorial sense, provide an outlet for the masses to blow off steam – and for oligarchs to lull the population to sleep as they forget just how horribly things are being run.\n\nDoes it surprise anyone that there will be a UFC fight on the White House lawn in a few months?\n\n### **Economic Kayfabe**\n\nConsider, if you will then, the following thought experiment. What if the economy is more controlled than we ever imagined? What if the statistics that traders eagerly await are managed, massaged, or downright manipulated such that they measure one thing, but we tell ourselves they mean another. It would lead to lots of dislocations in the markets, wouldn’t it?\n\nThen remember:\n\nConsumer Price Index ≠ Inflation\n\nAn American legally carrying a gun, even during a protest ≠ domestic terrorism\n\nCorrelation ≠ Causation – *but it does make for some speculative fun!*\n\nDid anyone else find it odd that Donald Trump waited so long — until January 30th — to name Kevin Warsh, as the next Federal Reserve Chair and that it was on the same day that the death of Catherine O’Hara was reported — an actress best-known for screaming “Kevin!!!” in *Home Alone*, a movie franchise that Trump famously appeared in...\n\n

\n\n....and that when A=1, B=2, etc., “K-E-V-I-N W-A-R-S-H” adds up to 130,[5](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-5-187025407) and it all happened on the same day that 3.5 million pages of the latest Epstein file dump caused an internet shit storm? What is this? Some sort of Satan-worshiping cabal of human sacrificing pedo… oh…, right.\n\nNow, let’s not go off the deep end, but it begs the question. What if the optics are all carefully managed? What if the economic stories we hear and numbers we read aren’t completely accurate?\n\nWhat if it’s all a show? Economic kayfabe designed to keep our minds off the really important things in life.\n\n

\n\nThere is always a media narrative designed to explain market events. January 30th was an eventful news day, as gold and silver sold off violently – more than ever before in a day, really. The narrative chalked it up to Warsh being the most “Hawkish” choice Trump could have made.\n\n

\n\nA headline that will age like fine milk. | Bloomberg\n\nTo be blunt, that narrative, and anyone peddling it, is retarded. That brain-dead view is based on things Warsh said fifteen to twenty years ago. James Lavish [outlined](https://www.jameslavish.com/p/trumps-new-fed-chair-does-it-even) Warsh’s time at the Fed and his “evolution” over the past fifteen years. \n\n> “*So Warsh spent 15 years as a hawk. Opposed QE. Resigned in protest. Then Trump started looking for a Fed chair. Suddenly, a **different tune.** In July 2025, Warsh appeared on CNBC criticizing Powell for not cutting rates fast enough. He called for ‘regime change’ at the Fed…*\n>\n> ***The hawk became a dove.*** *Right when it mattered for getting the job.”*\n\nLavish also creatively, and we’d say correctly, labeled Warsh as “the Cantillon Effect in human form.” \n\n> “*In 2002, Warsh married Jane Lauder, **granddaughter of Estée Lauder**. Her father is Ronald Lauder, net worth approximately **$4.7 billion**. Ronald Lauder has been one of Trump’s longtime allies and donors.”*\n\nRonald Lauder is also thought to be the person who suggested to Trump that the US go get Greenland.[6](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-6-187025407)\n\nDoes anyone seriously think that Kevin Warsh will be anything but cooperative with the Trump administration as it attempts to jawbone rates down a lot closer to zero than they are today?\n\nWell, a lot of *Very Serious People* apparently do, but we certainly do not. We mentioned as such [here](https://fingod.substack.com/p/save-this-thread) in July and [here](https://fingod.substack.com/p/orange-is-the-new-black) in August last year.\n\nNo, markets, particularly gold and silver didn’t plunge on January 30th because markets think Trump appointed a “hawk” to lead the Fed.\n\nGold and silver (probably) plunged because there was a gold “bank” run in China.\n\n

\n\nLast week was pretty chaotic at the Jie Wo Rui “underground” gold trading stall in a mall in Shenzhen, China right across the border from Hong Kong. Chinese retail investors, who have had a bit of a wakeup call with real estate over the last five years, have piled into gold and silver. Customers of Jie Wo Rui were told last week that neither their funds, nor “their” gold were available for withdrawal.\n\nInvestors, understandably, freaked out.\n\n

\n\n\n\nIt would be shocking if these types of shenanigans were happening only at one shop in one city in China. No, it’s probably going on all over. And so maybe somebody knew something. Maybe someone in the governance oligarchy knew a bailout would soon be needed and panic bid gold all the way up last week. Or maybe they knew a bailout would be needed and decided to smash the price down in order to eventually pay back less in renminbi terms.\n\nEconomic kayfabe can last as long as retail is willing to play the speculation game with fiat paper. Paper gold, silver, and yes, ETF bitcoin can and will be periodically smashed down until a critical mass of market participants demand the real thing and not paper-claim IOUs.\n\nSo gold and silver have violently volatile times ahead.[7](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-7-187025407) We commented on that [here](https://fingod.substack.com/p/silver-meddle), and though we are very bullish on gold and silver long-term, we definitely did not expect the rapid climb to $5,500 and $120 per ounce respectively.\n\nWhere can they go from here? Is the secular bull market over? Will the US revalue its gold holdings from the $42.22 level it has on the books to the market value and create a multi-trillion dollar accounting gain for the Treasury?\n\nThese are all questions that we have been asked recently.\n\nThe answers, in our view, in order are: All over the place. No. And, not anytime soon.\n\nWe believe that the US’s gold holdings will not be revalued until the price reaches a level close to the maximum amount that Jim Sinclair used to call the past two secular bull market tops in 1980 and 2011. Sinclair died a few years ago, so he unfortunately can’t comment now, but his model basically asserted the following:\n\nGold’s price, denominated in a global reserve currency, would go to a price level where the amount of foreign-owned debt would match that country’s stated gold reserves. It basically means foreigners will eventually demand that the gold held by the borrower can at least cover the debt it issues to foreigners.\n\nWhat is that level today? US debt owned by foreigners is somewhere around $9.35 trillion. And the United States’ stated gold reserves is somewhere around 261.5 million ounces.\n\nUsing Jim Sinclair’s logic that got him to call the 1980 top within about 6% and the 2011 top within about 12%, the potential top in gold in this bull market is around $35,000 per ounce.\n\nRevaluing the US gold holdings at *that* level would result in over a $9 trillion accounting gain and could take a nice chunk out of the $38.7 trillion national debt and the current 124% debt/GDP ratio.\n\nWith a $31 trillion GDP, in one fell swoop, that debt/GDP ratio could come down to around 95%. And if Trump, Bessent, and an uber-dovish Warsh really decided to juice the economy with near-zero interest rates, industrial welfare, semiquincentennial[8](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-8-187025407) stimulus checks, and 50-year mortgages, and got the economy growing at 6% per year midway through Trump’s fourth term in 2034,[9](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-9-187025407) then you have a $50 trillion GDP, and a newly healthy-looking debt/GDP ratio around 59% — exactly where it was in the year 2000. That of course assumes the debt doesn’t grow further — which it will. But near-ZIRP short-term issuance with stablecoin buyers could help on that front more than most expect.\n\nBefore you punch your screen and yell about how ridiculous this sounds, just know, we do not think the Trump administration will be *successful* in this type of plan. But that won’t stop them from trying something like it.\n\n

\n\nWhenever you see this, it will already be outdated. | usdebtclock.org\n\nIt’s years away, but yes, we believe gold will top out at around $34,000 to $35,000 before all is said and done. It will be very uncomfortable all the way up. And where does silver go in that case? If the gold-to-silver ratio trends toward around 30 where we have speculated it eventually will, that implies silver around $1,100 per ounce. If it just stays around 50 where it was until very recently, we are talking the $650 to $700 range.\n\nIt sounds absolutely crazy, and we are speculating, to be sure. These are not the kinds of thoughts that private banks or Wall Street analysts fearful for their careers would ever want to say out loud.\n\nBut there is *absolutely* a historical precedent for all of it. Maybe an eight-year timeline is too long to be relevant to you. Or maybe that’s exactly how you should be thinking if you are in your prime earning years or earlier, trying to get ahead like the demographically-blessed Baby Boomers were able to. But it’s not 1985 and Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, and K-E-V-I-N W-A-R-S-H know this. They want, more than anything, to continue to wield power and they may have to fake smash a folding chair into the back of someone’s head every once in a while to do it. The economic kayfabe is about to kick into high-gear.\n\n

\n\n*I pity the fool who doesn’t ⚡ zap⚡ this post.*\n\n\\____________________________________________________________\\_\n\n[1](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-1-187025407)\n\nIronically, or perhaps completely to be expected, “Wind of Change” is the title of a Cold War era power ballad by the German soft metal corporate rock band Scorpions. The song was a big hit in Europe in particular, and became associated with the fall of the Berlin Wall and then the Soviet Union. The song is the subject of an interesting investigative podcast series that delves into allegations that it was actually composed by the CIA as part of a propaganda operation against the Soviets.\n\n[2](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-2-187025407)\n\nAt the start of 1964, the final birth year of the Baby Boom generation and the last year US coinage contained silver, the Federal minimum wage was $1.25. This means the lowest form of labor would garner five quarters, or about 0.9 ounces of silver and even after the recent crash in silver prices, at, say $72 per oz. that would equate to a *minimum* wage of around $65 an hour had we still been on a hard money standard.\n\nOnce upon a time, Productivity and Pay levels were measured at 167.4 and 158 respectively – a Productivity-Pay gap of less than 6%. By the end of 1971, after President Nixon took America fully off the gold standard, the gap had risen to over 9 ½ %, and as stated, in early 1985 it had risen to a lofty level of almost 23%. Toward the end of 2025, the Productivity-Pay gap stood at over 62%.\n\n\n\n[3](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-3-187025407)\n\nWhatever system you like to read, it’s all the same: pronounced kā-ˌfāb , KAY-fayb , keɪfeɪb.\n\n“K-fabe,” - Like “K” the letter and a long ‘A’ sound in the second syllable, if you will.\n\n\n\n[4](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-4-187025407)\n\nIvana wasn’t by Donald’s side for Wrestlemania V, however, as the divorce proceedings had already gotten underway. Yeah, we watched these too. The things we do for a good story…\n\n[5](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-5-187025407)\n\nRemember, Euro-friends, Americans write month-day-year. 1/30 = January 30th.\n\n[6](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-6-187025407)\n\n\n\n[7](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-7-187025407)\n\nWe will comment on bitcoin’s violent price dump in an upcoming post.\n\n[8](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-8-187025407)\n\nA 250th year anniversary\n\n[9](https://fingod.substack.com/p/economic-kayfabe#footnote-anchor-9-187025407)\n\nYou see what we did there?","created_at",1770405876,"id","23ef190ee4c866e049ad7c0799176e4a3032447ddb5b20ba60b141dba567d329","kind",30023,"pubkey","39ab03c5e5733c0f864cd63f5cc1c8813fdb7c29d2305743591a282c2150cf85","sig","9c71d6ef00163bf8e59119895d32ef6f02c80539599cfac6e1a33941a711446c24ad2858baf1c14722d11e810c9ad341314f8103431e97bf918b3b62f3bd1ddf","tags",[28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35],[47,48],[45,46],[43,44],[40,12],[40,42],[40,41],[38,39],[36,37],"d","Economic-Kayfabe-27cp13","published_at","1770405876","t","#WWE","#gold","image","https://blossom.primal.net/5e63b761dcf6961e10d8623789379564a767782e25acf8977460aeb55dc8647e.png","summary","Bread & circus markets, and the most American moment in \"sports\" history\n","title","Economic Kayfabe"]